This week’s economic calendar unfolds with a somewhat subdued tone compared to the previous week’s bustling schedule, marked by significant events like the Federal Reserve meeting and the April jobs report. Nonetheless, key highlights are in store, notably with earnings reports from industry giants such as Walt Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery, spotlighting their streaming service performance.
Additionally, Federal Reserve officials will provide valuable assessments on economic conditions through various speaking engagements, while updates on consumer sentiment and lending standards are also slated, adding depth to the economic landscape.
Let’s delve into the week ahead to explore the significant economic releases scheduled from May 6th to May 10th.
🇪🇺 Retail Sales m/m — May 7, at 12:00 GMT+3
This week’s spotlight on the economic front falls on the release of the Eurozone’s Retail Sales month-over-month (m/m) data. Following a slight contraction of -0.5% in the previous period, analysts anticipate a flat growth rate of 0.0% for the current month. Retail Sales m/m measures the change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, providing crucial insights into consumer spending patterns within the Eurozone.
Investors eyeing the EUR/USD currency pair will be particularly attuned to this release, as it could sway market sentiment. With Bulls cautiously asserting themselves, aiming for the 1.0900 level, any deviation from the expected figures could prompt fluctuations in the currency pair. A better-than-expected Retail Sales figure might bolster the Euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair closer to the target level, while disappointing data could exert downward pressure on the currency pair, influencing trading strategies accordingly.
🛢 EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change — May 8, at 17:30 GMT+3
As the economic calendar progresses, attention shifts to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Stocks Change report, slated for the following day. This report holds significant sway over the prices of both Brent and WTI crude oil, serving as a crucial indicator of supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.
A larger-than-expected build in crude oil inventories could exert downward pressure on oil prices, as it suggests an oversupply situation. Conversely, a drawdown in inventories could provide support to oil prices, indicating robust demand or supply disruptions.
Oil futures experienced a surge, buoyed by Saudi Arabia’s announcement of raising June crude prices for most regions. The market also reacted to escalating concerns regarding a potential ceasefire agreement in Gaza, reigniting fears of heightened tensions in the oil-rich Middle East due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.
Brent crude futures advanced by 43 cents, marking a 0.5% increase, reaching $83.39 per barrel. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures saw an uptick, climbing to $78.62 per barrel, up by 51 cents or 0.7%.
🇬🇧 BoE Interest Rate Decision — May 9, at 14:00 GMT+3
As the week unfolds, the focal point shifts to the Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision, a pivotal event expected to maintain the interest rate at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive time. March witnessed a notable dovish tilt from the BoE, hinting at the potential for future rate cuts. This marked a significant departure from previous cycles, as no members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted for a rate hike, with one member even advocating for a decrease in interest rates. This decision was underpinned by the encouraging downward trajectory of the country’s inflation, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) plummeting to 3.2% year-on-year, its lowest level since September 2021.
Against this backdrop, market attention is keenly focused on the BoE’s rate decision, with implications rippling across various sectors. In the currency markets, GBP/USD continues its rally above 1.2550, with investors closely monitoring the central bank’s stance on monetary policy.
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims — May 9, at 15:30 GMT+3
The upcoming release of the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report is poised to capture market attention, given its potential impact on the US dollar and major stock indices such as the Nasdaq, SPX500, and Dow Jones. Last week, Initial Jobless Claims remained steady at 208K, slightly surpassing the expected figure of 212K. This data point serves as a crucial barometer of labor market health and economic resilience, with lower-than-expected claims often interpreted as a positive sign for the economy and vice versa.
Against the backdrop of recent market dynamics, where equities have surged with the S&P 500 marking its best 3-day run of 2024 earlier in the week, investors are closely monitoring economic indicators for signs of sustained momentum.
🇬🇧 GDP q/q — May 10, at 09:00 GMT+3
The culmination of the week lies in the release of the British GDP quarter-on-quarter (q/q) data, anticipated to show a marginal contraction of -0.1%. In the previous period, the GDP exhibited a decline of -0.3%. This economic indicator serves as a pivotal gauge of the UK’s economic health and growth trajectory, carrying implications for monetary policy decisions and investor sentiment.
Amidst these developments, the British Pound has sustained its upward momentum against the US Dollar throughout the week, driving the GBP/USD pair to breach the significant 1.2600 level for the first time since mid-April. This strengthening Pound reflects market optimism and confidence in the UK economy’s resilience amid ongoing challenges.
That’s it for this week! 👋
