Stock markets ended a tumultuous week with a decline on Friday, dragged down by disappointing earnings from major US banks, escalating geopolitical tensions, and persistent worries about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction.
In the coming week, investors will be keenly focused on new economic reports, such as retail sales and industrial production, to gather more insights that might influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.
🇺🇸 March’s Retail Sales m/m — April 15, at 15:30 GMT+3
This report provides insights into consumer expenditure on various durable and non-durable goods, serving as an indicator of economic health, spending patterns, and demand-side inflation pressures.
It marks the beginning of an active business week. The forecast suggests a modest increase of 0.2%, a decrease from the previous figure of 0.6%. Markets may react to this change, particularly as the EUR/USD rebounds amid heightened geopolitical turmoil, currently hovering around 1.0650.
🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change — April 16, at 09:00 GMT+3
The upcoming release is the British Claimant Count Change, which signifies the change in the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits in the country over a specified period. This indicator is crucial for gauging the labor market’s health and overall economic well-being.
Expectations for this release are a decrease to 9.7 thousand claims, compared to the previous figure of 16.8 thousand. A lower number indicates potential improvement in the job market.
This release is likely to impact not only the GBP/USD currency pair but also the FTSE100 index. In March, the FTSE100 index saw a rise of 200 points and continues to trade around the 7,963 mark. The Claimant Count Change release could potentially influence the index, depending on whether it aligns with market expectations and perceptions of the UK’s economic recovery.
🇪🇺 CPI and Core CPI m/m — April 17, at 12:00 GMT+3
The upcoming release comprises European inflation data, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI month-over-month (m/m). CPI measures the average change in prices over time that consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, while Core CPI excludes volatile components like food and energy prices to provide a more accurate reflection of underlying inflation trends.
These inflation figures hold significant sway over various assets, including the EUR/USD currency pair and the DAX30 index. A higher-than-expected CPI and Core CPI can signal potential inflationary pressures, which may prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider tightening monetary policy, potentially strengthening the euro and influencing European stock indices like the DAX30.
Conversely, if the inflation data comes in lower than anticipated, it may reinforce the ECB’s stance on maintaining accommodative monetary policy, possibly exerting downward pressure on the euro and impacting European equities.
Notably, recent statements from the ECB have hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in June, which could further shape market sentiment surrounding the euro and European assets.
🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales — April 18, at 17:00 GMT+3
This report tracks the sales volumes and prices of existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops across the nation. Given that existing homes make up more than 90% of total home sales in the country, it offers valuable insights into the overall health of the housing market, which has significant implications for economic activity nationwide.
The anticipated figure stands at 4.18 million units, down from the previous reading of 4.38 million units. This discrepancy may spur activity among traders of the EUR/USD currency pair, as well as indices such as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and SPX500.
🇬🇧 Retail Sales m/m — April 19, at 09:00 GMT+3
The active business week concludes with a release from the UK, specifically retail sales data. Expectations are set at 0.3%, compared to last month’s stagnant 0.0%. This anticipated increase signals a positive sign for business activity, potentially leading to volatility in the GBP/USD currency pair. This is particularly noteworthy given that The Pound Sterling recently reached four-month lows against the US Dollar, and GBP/USD appears vulnerable as the UK heads into inflation week.
This release signifies the level of consumer spending at retail establishments, providing insights into the strength of consumer demand and overall economic activity in the UK.
That’s it for this week! 👋
