As we embark upon a new quarter in 2024, all eyes are on the upcoming releases of the week. Among the key events on the radar are the Nonfarm Payrolls report from the United States, European CPI figures, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
With expectations running high and uncertainties lingering, the week promises to be a pivotal one for financial markets worldwide.
🇺🇸 ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday, April 1, at 17:00 GMT+2
As the business week commences after an extended weekend, market focus shifts towards key economic indicators, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Recent forecasts for the EUR/USD pair suggest a stronger US Dollar, indicating potential downward pressure on the pair. Against this backdrop, the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI, with a forecast of 47.7 and a previous result of 47.8, gains heightened significance. A figure below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, potentially reinforcing the strength of the US Dollar.
This scenario might lead to lower lows for the EUR/USD pair as market participants assess the health of the US economy and its implications for currency dynamics.
🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday, April 2, at 17:00 GMT+2
Next up is the JOLTS Job Openings report, a crucial gauge of labor market conditions in the United States. This report measures the total number of job openings during the reported month, providing insights into the demand for labor across various sectors of the economy.
With a forecast of 8.410 million job openings, compared to the previous result of 8.863 million, market participants will be closely monitoring this release for signals regarding the strength and direction of the US labor market.
A higher-than-expected number of job openings could suggest robust labor demand, potentially bolstering confidence in the economy and supporting consumer spending. Conversely, a lower figure might raise concerns about economic recovery and could weigh on market sentiment.
🇪🇺 CPI and Core CPI m/m on Wednesday, April 3, at 12:00 GMT+2
In the lead-up to the European CPI and Core CPI m/m releases, the EUR/USD pair is experiencing continued downward pressure, hovering around 1.0780, following dovish remarks from ECB members. These remarks have contributed to market expectations of potential monetary policy adjustments from the European Central Bank (ECB), impacting the euro’s value against the US dollar.
The European CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Core CPI (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) month-over-month releases are critical indicators of inflationary pressures within the Eurozone. A higher-than-expected CPI figure typically suggests increasing inflation, potentially strengthening the euro as it may prompt speculation of tighter monetary policy from the ECB. Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI figure could weigh on the euro, indicating subdued inflationary pressures and potentially reinforcing dovish sentiments from ECB officials.
Moreover, these releases can also influence the DAX30 index, which is sensitive to changes in economic fundamentals and currency movements.
🇺🇸 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday, April 3, at 17:00 GMT+2
On the upcoming release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with a forecast of 51.7 and a previous result of 52.6, investors keenly await its implications for the SPX500 rally and the possibility of reaching new historical highs.
A PMI above 50 indicates expansion in the non-manufacturing sector, which could sustain the momentum for the SPX500 rally. However, a figure below expectations might temper market optimism, potentially hindering the index’s ascent to new highs.
🇺🇸 Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday, April 5, at 15:30 GMT+2
This report is a crucial indicator of the US economic health as it reflects changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. The forecast stands at 176K, with the previous result at 275K. This release marks the end of the week and can significantly impact various assets including Nasdaq, SPX500, Dow Jones, and the US Dollar.
A higher-than-expected figure typically strengthens the USD and boosts the stock market indices, while a lower figure tends to weaken the USD and may lead to a decline in the stock market.
That’s it for this week! 👋
