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Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government is going to present its second budget for the fiscal year 2020-21, with an estimated outlay of around Rs7.5 trillion, on June 12 (Friday). The government has officially acknowledged that coronavirus has inflicted a loss of Rs3 trillion on the economy so far with 3 percent to 3.5 percent hit to the GDP and the severity of the pandemic on export and remittance will be more in the months ahead. The total foreign reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) have decreased by $266 million to $10.095 billion during the week ended June 5, 2020. The government expects that a V-shaped economic recovery is highly likely when the spread of coronavirus slows down, according to Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-20. Budget deficit is expected to exceed the target of 7.5 per cent of GDP and may go to 9.4pc of GDP owing to disruption in economic activity and increasing expenditure on public health and social safety net programs lessening the impact of Covid-19.

Market View: The KSE100 Index gained 57.51 points during Thursday’s trading session. We expect the market to remain stable and range bound in the upcoming session.

Commodities:

Brent oil (USD/bbl): 37.58 (-2.65% D/D)

Crude oil (USD/bbl): 35.32 (-2.81% D/D)Gold (USD/oz): 1,732.50 (-0.42% D/D)

National News

Around Rs7.5 trillion budget to be presented today

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government is going to present its second budget for the fiscal year 2020-21, with an estimated outlay of around Rs7.5 trillion, on June 12 (Friday).

https://www.brecorder.com/news/1003739/around-rs75-trillion-budget-to-be-presented-today

Covid-19 inflicts Rs 3 trillion loss on economy: Hafeez

ISLAMABAD: The government has officially acknowledged that coronavirus has inflicted a loss of Rs3 trillion on the economy so far with 3 percent to 3.5 percent hit to the GDP and the severity of the pandemic on export and remittance will be more in the months ahead.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/1003737/covid-19-inflicts-rs-3-trillion-loss-on-economy-hafeez

Foreign reserves down by $266 million to $10.095 billion

KARACHI: The total foreign reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) have decreased by $266 million to $10.095 billion during the week ended June 5, 2020.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/1003703/foreign-reserves-down-by-266-million-to-10095-billion

ECONOMIC SURVEY 2019-20: V-shaped recovery highly likely

KARACHI: The government expects that a V-shaped economic recovery is highly likely when the spread of coronavirus slows down, according to Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-20.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1562974/economic-survey-2019-20-v-shaped-recovery-highly-likely

Covid-19 impact on revenues estimated at Rs899bn

ISLAMABAD: Budget deficit is expected to exceed the target of 7.5 per cent of GDP and may go to 9.4pc of GDP owing to disruption in economic activity and increasing expenditure on public health and social safety net programs lessening the impact of Covid-19.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1562962/covid-19-impact-on-revenues-estimated-at-rs899bn

‘Higher interest rate slowed down the economy’

KARACHI: The State Bank of Pakistan’s move to increase the policy rate to absorb the inflationary pressure in July 2019 resulted in lower credit demand from the private sector, which slowed down business activitiy, said the Economic Survey 2019-20 on Thursday.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1562965/higher-interest-rate-slowed-down-the-economy

Import of 1636 items: ACD to be abolished in FY21 budget

ISLAMABAD: The government has decided to abolish additional customs duty (ACD) on the import of 1636 items in coming budget (2020-21) and reduction of duties on the smuggling prone items.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/1003730/import-of-1636-items-acd-to-be-abolished-in-fy21-budget

Total public debt jumps to 88pc of GDP

KARACHI: Total debt and liabilities of the country rose by Rs2.597 trillion in the period running from July 2019 to March 2020, the Pakistan Economic Survey showed. The total is now at 102.6 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

https://www.dawn.com/news/1562973/total-public-debt-jumps-to-88pc-of-gdp

Inflation to fall further in next fiscal year

ISLAMABAD: With falling international commodity prices, the government on Thursday said the annual inflation in the outgoing fiscal year will ease to 10.7 per cent, down from the earlier projection of 11.8pc.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1562966/inflation-to-fall-further-in-next-fiscal-year

Large-scale industrial output shrinks 5.4pc

ISLAMABAD: Exchange rate depreciation and contractionary monetary and fiscal policies plunged the large-scale manufacturing (LSM) by 5.4 per cent in the outgoing fiscal year, figures released by the Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-20 showed on Thursday.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1562970/large-scale-industrial-output-shrinks-54pc

Tax exemptions cost kitty Rs1.15tr

ISLAMABAD: The tax exemptions cost in the current fiscal year rose to Rs1.149 trillion, up 18.25 per cent from Rs972.4 billion in the preceding year, the Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-20 showed on Thursday.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1562972/tax-exemptions-cost-kitty-rs115tr

Ogra fines six OMCs

ISLAMABAD: The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) on Thursday has fined six oil marketing companies (OMC) over creating artificial petrol shortage in various parts of the country along with serving show cause notices to three other OMCs.

https://epaper.brecorder.com/2020/06/12/20-page/840420-news.html

High energy prices add to the cost of doing business

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Tahreek-i-Insaf government on Thursday acknowledged that high energy prices have increased the cost of doing business.

https://epaper.brecorder.com/2020/06/12/17-page/840400-news.html

Auto expert demands of govt to withdraw counterproductive duties, taxes

LAHORE: Withdrawal of all counterproductive duties and taxes that increase the price of a vehicle is a long-term sustainable solution to grow the auto industry in Pakistan which will make automobiles more accessible, increase sales and lead to overall economic growth.

https://epaper.brecorder.com/2020/06/12/3-page/840298-news.html

Export target seems hard to reach

ISLAMABAD: The government has said the export target of $ 26. 2 billion of current financial year, seems difficult to achieve due to several reasons.

https://epaper.brecorder.com/2020/06/12/17-page/840401-news.html

Per capita income witnesses decline

ISLAMABAD: The per capita income in Pakistan has witnessed a decline during the first nine months of the 2019-2020 from $1,497.3 to $1,355, the Pakistan Economic Survey 2019-2020 released here on Thursday revealed. According to the economic survey, the country’s per capita income was revised down from $1,497.3 to $1,455.1 for the entire fiscal year 2018-2019.

https://epaper.brecorder.com/2020/06/12/17-page/840403-news.html

Economic Survey 2018/19: Agriculture being mainstay of economy grew by only 2.67pc

ISLAMABAD: A sector that is considered the mainstay of economy and provides livelihood for almost two out of every five Pakistanis, if grows by only 2.67 percent, it should be considered alarm bells for the government and push it to give more preference to the sector in upcoming federal budget.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/671525-economic-survey-2018-19-agriculture-being-mainstay-of-economy-grew-by-only-2-67pc

Tariff structure rationalised for 30,000 raw materials, intermediary goods

ISLAMABAD: Presenting relief-oriented budget on Friday (today), the government has decided to rationalise duty/tariff structure for over 30,000 raw materials and intermediary goods for boosting up industrialisation in the country, commerce adviser said on Wednesday.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/671240-tariff-structure-rationalised-for-30-000-raw-materials-intermediary-goods

Defence-related expenditure rises by 11.3pc

ISLAMABAD: Defence-related expenditures rose by 11.3 percent in fiscal year 2019-20 with current expenditure rising to Rs 1,146.8 billion in FY 2020 against Rs 1,030.4 billion in FY 2019, the Economic Survey 2019-20 revealed.

https://epaper.brecorder.com/2020/06/12/20-page/840422-news.html

Challenges ahead are fiscal

Just as the Finance Minister said in his speech that it is not easy to quantify the impact of Covid, he economic numbers for the next fiscal year are subject to change. Even the numbers for the outgoing year are not clear as the impact of lockdown at home and supply chain disruption in the globe is hard to predict.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/1003508/challenges-ahead-are-fiscal

EFP takes up arduous task to promote non-traditional exports: Ismail Suttar

KARACHI: Ismail Suttar, President of the Apex Body of Manufacturers, The Employers Federation of Pakistan (EFP), has said that a strategic partner of the Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC) and old partner of CEO Club, has taken the arduous task of creating new trade channels and markets for non-traditional exports of Pakistan, amid Covid-19 situation.

https://www.brecorder.com/news/1003675/efp-takes-up-arduous-task-to-promote-non-traditional-exports-ismail-suttar

International News

Oil prices extend slump as U.S. coronavirus cases climb

Oil prices slid early on Friday, extending heavy overnight losses on a surge in U.S. coronavirus cases this week that has raised the prospect of a second wave of the outbreak slamming demand in the world’s biggest consumer of crude and fuel.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/12/oil-markets-coronavirus-in-focus.html

Dow futures rise more than 200 points as Wall Street tries to recover from its worst day since March

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded 235 points higher, implying a Friday opening jump of around 409 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures also pointed to a positive Friday start for the two indexes.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Gold eases on firmer dollar, but holds near one-week high

Gold eased on Thursday as the dollar firmed but fears over a fresh wave of coronavirus infections and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates low kept bullion close to its highest in over a week.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/11/gold-markets-us-federal-reserve-economic-data-in-focus.html


KASB Research

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Daily news: 12th June 2020

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